May I first apologise for the lack of tips recently, as you know I have never been a great fan of jumps racing & that reflects in my betting records as I seldom return a profit from betting on it. Watching slow horse plodding through the mud in mid winter does not turn me on. Up until recently I was a keen follower of the all-weather racing & returned very good profits from it, but I have became bored with the repetitive & tedious nature of it. In saying that I have just taken the 10.5 on Betfair about Hit's Only Cash in the 3:30 at Wolverhampton. This is the first runner for A friends new racing club, called SportaRacing.com. I know it is extremely well fancied as they want to get off to a flying start & if you can get odds of 8/1 it is well worth a few quid each way. You might even want to risk a few bob on the forecast as I have been told in no uncertain terms the likely favourite, Effective, is also expected! I have joined the racing club myself & think it should prove good value, please let me know if you require any further details. I have also put an image banner link on my websites to it.

http://www.sportaracing.com/index.php?AID=AFJWR


Don't think I have been slacking in my studying of the form book. It's only 3 weeks to the start of the flat season & one of my favourite & most profitable races the Lincoln handicap. The one I have dug out this year is called King's Majesty but have still to place my bet. This and about 50 other will shortly be on my list of horses to follow which can be found on the Forum page of the website. The list last year included Streams of Gold who bolted up in the Lincoln, available at 20/1 ante post! BOXHALL who won at 25/1 & I have still not recovered from watching REAL QUALITY win at 40/1 at not having a penny on.

I feel as if I am already Cheltenham'd out but here is my annual preview (lets hope it's better than last year!):

Cheltenham Preview.

(stats now based over the last 12 years).
Experience has taught me you need an in-form horse, who has been trained for the meeting, has been placed at the track before and has experienced running in a big fields with a fast pace on good going. Remember you don’t need to bet in every race, there is no fun in losing, be patient.

Festival - Day One
Tuesday March 15
1400: Letheby & Christopher Supreme Novices' Hurdle
There have been 6 Irish trained winners of this race in this period. 6yo's have the best age group record with 7 wins. The last 8 winners also won Last Time Out.
No Selection at the moment.

1435: Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy
Only 2 winning favourites in 10 years. Another fair race for the Irish whose trainers have supplied 3 winners. All winners had been 1st/2nd on last completed outing. Longest SP was 11/1.
Selection: FOREMAN

1515: Smurfit Champion Hurdle
Only Istabraq has won as favourite in last 12 years.. Besides Aiden O'Brien's three wins the other trainers to note are M Pipe & J Fanshawe with two wins each
Selection: ARCALIS

1600: William Hill National Hunt Handicap
Favourites have only a 10% strike rate in the last 12 years. 7 winners carried 10st 8lb or less. Only one Irish trainer winner in the last 37 years.
No Selection at the moment.

1640: Sporting Index Chase
A stupid race that should not be in the festival!

1720:Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.
No Selection at the moment.


Festival - Day Two
Wednesday March 16
1400: Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle
One of the better races for favourites. Good form required i.e. placed/winner in last race. 6yo are the favoured age group with 7 wins. 4 Irish trained winners in this last 12 years.

Selection: BLACK JACK KETCHAM

1435: Royal & SunAlliance Chase
Solid form in last run, placed or better, is essential. As an age group 7yo have fared well recently with 5 wins from last 8. Favourites only 18% win rate.
Selection: No Selection at the moment.
1515: Queen Mother Champion Chase

With generally smaller fields the favourites strike rate of 30% is not that good really. Since 1984 Badsworth Boy, Pearlyman, Barnbrook Again, Viking Flagship & Moscow Flyer have all notched doubles. 8yo's have the best age group strike rate with 5 wins. Longest SP 9/1.

Selection: No Selection at the moment.

1600: ***** Cup
Only run 11 times with 2 favourites winning. M Pipe has 3 wins (two with outsiders) and there were also 4 Irish trained winners. 7 winners carried 10st 6lb or less. Form figure of 6th or better on last completed race also a common feature.
No Selection at the moment.

1640: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Favourites fared slightly better here with 20% win rate. Common form feature is a 1st/2nd place in either of last two starts.
Selection:No Selection at the moment.

1720: Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Must be the best Irish race of the week with 9 wins from last 12 races. Only Monsignor in 1999 bucked the trend of needing a win LTO. Willie Mullins has claimed the prize 4 times. Best age group to follow is 5yo with 8 wins. Only 2 winning favourites. All 12 winning jockeys were of Irish descent.
Selection: Very difficult, nothing stands out.

Festival - Day Three
.
Thursday March 17

1400: Jewson Novices' Hurdle: No Selection at the moment.

1435: Daily Telegraph Festival Trophy: No Selection at the moment.

1515: Ladbroke World Hurdle
Four overseas winners with M Pipe having best home record with two wins. 7yo age group has best record with 5 wins. Last form needs to be 4th place or better Favourites have a 25% record but there have also been several longer priced winners in last decade.
Selection: MIGHTY MAN

1600: Mildmay of Flete Challenge Cup
N Henderson & M Pipe have trained 3 winners a piece in this race. Generally a race for younger chasers with two from M Pipe being 5yo's.
No Selection at the moment.

1640: National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup
Not the classiest of races, currently no early price, a race to avoid.

1720: Pertemps Final
Ultra competitive race, with many multiple entries. Too tough to predict.

Festival - Day Four
Friday March 18

1400: JCB Triumph Hurdle
Four overseas winners, three Irish & one French. Favourites rate a respectable 30% strike rate. Nine horses had won LTO with other two placed so good recent form essential.
Selection: AFSOUN, big danger Detroit City

1435: Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle
BLACK JACK KETCHAM
.
1515: Cheltenham Gold Cup
Favourites generally fare poorly. A solid run, 4th or better, in last completed race seems essential form.
No Selection at the moment.

1600: Christies Foxhunter Steeplechase
Richard Barber has had four wins in this event although latest in 1998. All winners were 3rd or better in last completed race under rules (other than Rushing Wild who was unraced under rules).
No Selection at the moment.

1650: The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual
Favourites fare slightly better at 30% in this event. Statistics slightly favour lower weights with 7 winners carrying 10st 12lb or less. Common form requirement is 4th place or better in last completed race.

I really like 2 here ANDREAS & GREEN TANGO

1720: Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle
The County Hurdle brings down the curtain for another festival. Two winning favourites but those with SP's 8/1 to 14/1 have best record. 7 winners carried 10st 6lb or less although a good run LTO, finishing 4th or better seems essential.
No selection at the stage & it’s very competitive.

Until next time, Happy Punting

Jim
jwracing