Cheltenham Festival 2005 Preview.

This follows on from last few years’ previews (stats now based over the last 12 years).
Experience has taught me you need an in-form horse, who has been trained for the meeting, has been placed at the track before and has experienced running in a big fields with a fast pace on good going. Remember you don’t need to bet in every race, there is no fun in losing, be patient.

Festival - Day One
Tuesday March 15
1400: Letheby & Christopher Supreme Novices' Hurdle
There have been 6 Irish trained winners of this race in this period. 6yo's have the best age group record with 7 wins. The last 8 winners also won Last Time Out.
Selection: ONLY VINTAGE ran well to be seventh in the bumper last year, is a fresh horse & is a decent price, currently 19s on Betfair. Negative is the stable is not in great form.
1435: Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy
Only 2 winning favourites in 10 years. Another fair race for the Irish whose trainers have supplied 3 winners. All winners had been 1st/2nd on last completed outing. Longest SP was 11/1.
Selection: War Of Attrition is unbeaten over fences & ran a great race here last year. I have fancied him for this all season however I did n’t take the 20s that were available a few weeks ago & he is now only 4s, but is the one to beat. A bit of value may lie with River City, unbeaten in his five races over fences but has not run since October however the 16/1 is a tempting price.
1515: Smurfit Champion Hurdle
Only Istabraq has won as favourite in last 12 years.. Besides Aiden O'Brien's three wins the other trainers to note are M Pipe & J Fanshawe with two wins each
Selection: BACK IN FRONT has won three times in four races at the track, has been given a break & comes into the race a fresh horse. It is a very high-class race this year & a good case can be made for half a dozen others.
1600: William Hill National Hunt Handicap
Favourites have only a 10% strike rate in the last 12 years. 7 winners carried 10st 8lb or less. Only one Irish trainer winner in the last 37 years.

Selection: LORD OF ILLUSION form of recent win at the track has been frank & also comes here a fresh horse. However he is also entered the following day.

1640: Sporting Index Chase
A stupid race that should not be in the festival!
1720: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
No early prices available yet on this new race at the festival also no stats to uses guidance, keep stakes at as minimum here.
Festival - Day Two
Wednesday March 16
1400: Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle
One of the better races for favourites. Good form required i.e. placed/winner in last race. 6yo are the favoured age group with 7 wins. 4 Irish trained winners in this last 12 years.

Selection: GOLD MEDALLIST a group 2 winner on the flat & has won 3 out of 3 over hurdles. One negative, has only ever won on a right-handed track.
1435: Royal & SunAlliance Chase
Solid form in last run, placed or better, is essential. As an age group 7yo have fared well recently with 5 wins from last 8. Favourites only 18% win rate.

Selection: Ollie Magern has the best form but might run in the Gold Cup, this is Lord of Illusion other entry & at current odds of 14.5 on Befair this is worth a bet now.
1515: Queen Mother Champion Chase
With generally smaller fields the favourites strike rate of 30% is not that good really. Since 1984 Badsworth Boy, Pearlyman, Barnbrook Again & Viking Flagship have all notched doubles. - Azertyuiop & Moscow Flyer attempt this in 2005. A win/place on last completed outing appears essential. 8yo's have the best age group strike rate with 5 wins. Longest SP 9/1.

Selection: Slight preference for Azertyuiop.
1600: Coral Cup
Only run 11 times with 2 favourites winning. M Pipe has 3 wins (two with outsiders) and there were also 4 Irish trained winners. 7 winners carried 10st 6lb or less. Form figure of 6th or better on last completed race also a common feature.

Selection: AL EILE ran well in 2 big handicaps recently & also a course winner.
1640: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Favourites fared slightly better here with 20% win rate. Common form feature is a 1st/2nd place in either of last two starts.
Selection: JOLY BEY won last time out, jumps well & progressive


1720: Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Must be the best Irish race of the week with 9 wins from last 12 races. Only Monsignor in 1999 bucked the trend of needing a win LTO. Willie Mullins has claimed the prize 4 times. Best age group to follow is 5yo with 8 wins. Only 2 winning favourites. All 12 winning jockeys were of Irish descent.
Selection: slightly against the stats but at current odds of 14/1 OSCAR PARK.
Festival - Day Three
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Thursday March 17

1400: Jewson Novices' Hurdle

New race, no early prices, tricky.
1435: Daily Telegraph Festival Trophy
New race, Our Vic is potentialy the best horse in the race but took a heavy fall last time here & preference is for Thisthatandother however has been placed second in his last four races & usually finds one too good.
1515: Ladbroke World Hurdle
Four overseas winners with M Pipe having best home record with two wins. 7yo age group has best record with 5 wins. Last form needs to be 4th place or better Favourites have a 25% record but there have also been several longer priced winners in last decade.

Selection: Baracouda is a worthy favourite but is too short to recommend a bet.
1600: Mildmay of Flete Challenge Cup
N Henderson & M Pipe have trained 3 winners a piece in this race. Generally a race for younger chasers with two from M Pipe being 5yo's.

Selection: Brooklyn Breeze who take a few races to get fit will be spot on for this.

1640: National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup
Not the classiest of races, currently no early price, a race to avoid.
1720: Pertemps Final
Ultra competitive race, with many multiple entries. Too tough to predict.






Festival - Day Four
Friday March 18
1400: JCB Triumph Hurdle
Four overseas winners, three Irish & one French. Favourites rate a respectable 30% strike rate. Nine horses had won LTO with other two placed so good recent form essential.
Selection: AKILAK very impressive recent course & distance winner, although there are a lot of progressive unexposed horse in opposition 7/1 looks a fair price.
1435: Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle
A new race again, BRESTER is an improving course & distance winner however he does prefer soft ground.
1515: totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
Favourites generally fare poorly. A solid run, 4th or better, in last completed race seems essential form.

Best Mate looks vulnerable this year. I like Beef or Salmon but his jumping is suspect, Kingcliife is open to improvement but his jockey was undecided about riding him so the best bet in the race is Celestial Gold a course winner who travels well in his races & is open to improvement & 12/1 looks a sold each way bet.
1600: Christies Foxhunter Steeplechase
Richard Barber has had four wins in this event although latest in 1998. All winners were 3rd or better in last completed race under rules (other than Rushing Wild who was unraced under rules).
I don’t follow point to point racing & can offer no selection.
1650: The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual
Favourites fare slightly better at 30% in this event. Statistics slightly favour lower weights with 7 winners carrying 10st 12lb or less. Common form requirement is 4th place or better in last completed race.

Difficult to nominate a selection at this stage but the race is named after the trainer Nicky Hendersons father so his horse Caraccola is one to note.
1720: Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle
The County Hurdle brings down the curtain for another festival. Two winning favourites but those with SP's 8/1 to 14/1 have best record. 7 winners carried 10st 6lb or less although a good run LTO, finishing 4th or better seems essential.
No selection at the stage & it’s very competitive.
Cheltenham Racecourse Going Report
Sunday 6th March 2005: 11.00am
Good to Soft

Weather:
Today: Sunny and cold (11% chance of rain), 3°C
Tonight: Some clouds and cold (11% chance of rain), -1°C
Monday: Mostly cloudy (15% chance of rain), 7 °C
Tuesday: Partly sunny (8% chance of rain), 8 °C
Wednesday: Periods of sun (38% chance of rain), 6°C


Check the tips page for updates as the going can change and alter selections.
Happy Punting
Jim
www.jwracing.com



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