Cheltenham Festival 2008

Day One - Tuesday 11th March

2:00 Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices Hurdle
Positive Trends
Irish horses, 2 or less runs over hurdles, winner of 'Royal Bond and Deloitte Hurdle' and 'Tolworth Hurdle', Front 2 in betting, short priced mares
Negative Trends
Horses beaten last time out, non French bred 4yo's, Novices aged 7yo+
Selection: KYBER KIM

2:35 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy
Positive Trends
French Breds, winner of 'Henry VIII, November and Kingmaker Novices Chase', the top rated hurdler, trainer Paul Nicholls
Negative Trends
Horses aged 8yo+, front runners, rating of less than 140 over hurdles, not in 1st 2 last time out, Irish horses that did not contest the Baileys Arkle Cup, horses outside the 1st 6 in the betting
Selection: TIDAL BAY

3:15 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle
Positive Trends
Last time out winners Irish trained Won previously at Cheltenham
Negative Trends
5yo and 9yo+  Winners of Christmas Hurdle, last seasons Triumph Hurdle and Supreme Novices Hurdle
Selection: SIZING EUROPE

4:00 William Hill Handicap Chase
Positive Trends
2nd favourites, previously placed at Cheltenham Festival, Irish trained, Horses trained by Nicky Henderson, hold-up horses
Negative Trends
Horses rated 150+, horses carrying 11st+ (unless the handicap is condensed), aged 11+ novices on handicap debut, front runners, horses outside the handicap, favourite
Selection: AN ACCORDION

4:40 Cross Country Chase
Positive Trends
Irish trained horses esp Enda Bolga, top 5 in betting, ran in PP Hogan Memorial Chase, finished in 1st 3 over this course previously, horses trained by Ferdy Murphy Negative Trends
Horses aged under 8 horses new to cross country races, Paul Nicholls runners
No bet here, its a stupid race that shouldnt be in the festival.

5:20 Fred winter Novice handicap hurdle
Positive Trends
Last time out winners, horses that have run just 3 times to acquire a handicap mark, horses in top 1/3 handicap, horses trained by David Pipe or Gary Moore
Negative Trends
Unproven at 1m 4f on flat,
Selection: RIVER LIANE

Day Two - Wednesday 12th March

2:00 Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle
Positive Trends
Winning form over 2m4f+, 1st 6 in the betting, winning form at Leopardstown, jumps horses are preferred to ex-flat
Negative Trends
4yo's, 2 or fewer runs over hurdles, horses that have not contested pattern and listed races over hurdles, did not finish in the first 2 last time out, horses trained by Nicky Henderson Shortlist: Aigle D'Or, Group Captain, Fiveforthtree

2:35 Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
Positive Trends
Only consider 8yo's or 7yo's, horses trained by Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls, finished in first 2 last time out
Negative Trends
Winners of the Reynoldstown Chase and Feltham Chase, Irish horses except those trained by Willie Mullins, French bred and ex-flat horses, good hurdlers
Selection: Roll Along each way its currently 40/1!

3:15 Queen Mother Champion Chase
Positive Trends
Tingle Creek Chase form, last season's Arkle Trophy winner, first 3 in betting, previously placed at the Cheltenham Festival, horses trained by Paul Nicholls
Negative Trends
Horses rated below 160, aged 10+, failed to make the frame last time, unproven over 2m 1f Selection: Twist Magic

4:00 Cheltenham Festival Coral Cup
Positive Trends
Include at least one Irish trained horse, last time out winner, only a few runs this season, form in the Totesport Trophy, Pierse Hurdle & Ladbroke Hurdle, horses trained by Philip Hobbs, Edward O'Grady and Tony Martin, horses owned by J P McManus
Negative Trends
Front runners, horses trained by Nicky Henderson
Selection: Leg Spinner

4:40 Peter O'Sullevan N H Steeple Chase Challenge Cup
Positive Trends
Finished in first 4 last time out, horses trained by Jonjo O'Neill, won over hurdles, Irish horses, especially if trained by Willie Mullins
Negative Trends
5yo's and 6yo's, short priced favourites
Selection: Ornais

5:20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Positive Trends
Only consider Irish horses, first 6 in betting, Willie Mullins if entering just 1 runner, 5yo's, won in large fields of 15+, mares
Negative Trends
Beaten last time out, 4yo's, French breds, horses ridden by amateur or conditional riders (ie no claim), once raced (unless trained by Wilie Mullins)
Shortlist: Zaarito, Lilywhitedancer

Day Three - Thursday 13th March

2:00 Jewson Novices Handicap Chase
Positive Trends
Finished 1st or 2nd first time out, contested a Pattern race earlier in the season, in the bottom 1/3rd of the handicap, horses owned by J P McManus especially on handicap debut, horses trained by Jonjo O'Neill
Negative Trends
Top weights
No bet, extremely competitive with lots of potential improvers

2:35 Ryanair Chase
Positive Trends
Run well previously at the Cheltenham course, especially in this seasons Paddy Power and Boylesports Gold Cup, Top 4 in the betting, French breds, Paul Nicholls top contender Negative Trends 
Aged 10yo+, Peterborough Chase winner, Ascot Chase winner
Selection: Mossbank

3:15 Ladbroke World Hurdle
Positive Trends
Finished in first 4 last time out, beaten in Long Walk Hurdle or Cleeve Hurdle
Negative Trends
5yo's and older than 8, front runners, Irish horses
Shortlist: My Way De Solzen,  Kasbah Bliss

4:00 The Racing Post Plate Handicap Chase
Positive Trends
French breds, finished in first 4 last time out, Cheltenham Festival winners, trained by Nicky Henderson, Venetia Williams, Henry Daly, fancied novices
Negative Trends
Rated 142+, 10yo's+, Irish trained, contributed to the Paddy Power Gold Cup, and Boylesports Gold Cup
Selection: Dont Push It

4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
Positive Trends
Lightly raced, horses traied by Nicky Henderson, Ferdy Murphy, Charlie Mann, Robert Alner
Negative Trends
Horses officially rated 153+, aged between 8 - 10, Irish horses
Selection: The Roney Man, each way currently 16/1

5:20 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
Positive Trends
Irish trained that contested the Leopardstown Qualifier, trained by Jonjo O'Neill, owned by J P McManus, Totesport6 Heroes Hurdle winner
Negative Trends
5yo'5 and 10yo's+, front runners, outside the handicap, home based horses that have run more than 4 times since the autumn
Selection: Robin Du Bois

Day Four - Friday 14th March

2:00 JCB Triumph Hurdle
Positive Trends
Last time out winners, horses rated 80+ on the flat, horses trained by Philip Hobbs, Alan King, Willie Mullins, winners of the Adonis Hurdle and Cleanevent Juveile Hurdle
Negative Trends
Yet to run at least 3 times over hurdles, not raced beyond 1m 2f on the flat, reappearing after absence of 7 weeks, northern based stables, trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, French breds.
Selection:  Franchoek

2:35 The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Positive Trends
Cheltenham Novice Hurdle form, 1st or 2nd last time out, contested a race around 3 miles, Prestige Novices Hurdle form, Jonjo O'Neill's runners
Negative Trends
Odds over 9-1, 5yo's unless bred in France or Gremany, novices aged under 7
Selection: Lodge Lane

Cheltenham Festival Gold Cup
Positive Trends
Front runners, only consider horses officially rated 160+, won or placed at the Festival, ran well in the King George VI Chase, 2nd season chasers
Negative Trends
Horses previously beaten in Gold Cup, horses older than 9, and 6yo's, failed to finish in first 4 last time out
Selection: Denman

4:00 Christie's Foxhunters Chase
Positive Trends
Irish trained, front runners, previous course winners, trained by Paul Nicholls, owned by JP McManus, winners of the Willoughby De Broke (Warwick) and Raymond Smith (Leopardstown) Hunters Chases

Negative Trends
10yo's+ except previous winners of this race, ex handicappers switching to hunter chasing, hold up horses
Shortlist  Agus A Vic,  Thisthatandtother

4:35 Grand Annual Challenge Cup
Positive Trends
Won or placed last time out, first 6 in the betting, Novices, Irish horses, rated between 130 - 134, horses trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or owned by JP McManus
Negative Trends
10yo's+, rated over 145
Selection: Enlightenment

5:10 Vincent O'Brien Handicap Hurdle
Positive Trends
Ran well in Totesport Trophy, finished in first 4 last time out, 5yo's, Novices with handicap hurdle experience, trained by Paul Nichols or Philip Hobbs
Negative Trends
Front runners, horses that ran earlier in the Festival, horse carrying 11-8+, odds over 16-1, off the track for over 5 weeks
No bet too competitive

5:45 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
First running - no trends
Selection: Sweet Kiln